Let Trump be Trump

Trump Hands

I called this a long time ago, but let’s make it official.  Trump is done.  This race is over.  Hillary will be our next president.

The race actually ended a couple weeks ago, after Trump attacked the Khan family and then Jake, Hannah and I went after him on the national news and in the Washington Post.  Sure enough, after our publicity blitz, Trump further tanked in the polls, and then went completely off the rails, claiming that election would be “rigged,” that maybe the “Second Amendment People” could do something to stop Hillary and that President Obama founded ISIS.  Everyone went nuts, most of all the Republicans.  In response, Trump replaced his campaign manager with a Trump cheerleader, Kellyanne Conway, and Steve Bannon, the CEO of Breitbart News, a far right wing website that promotes conspiracy theories and regularly attacks mainstream Republicans who aren’t crazy enough for their liking.  Trump’s new campaign managers revealed their strategy for winning the election, which would be to “Let Trump Be Trump.”

Let that sink in for a minute.  “Let Trump Be Trump.”  As if Trump wasn’t crazy enough already.  Well, now they taking off the shackles, so he can really be himself.  Well, letting Trump be Trump is 100% a losing strategy.  He already has the crazies, racists and evangelicals on board, but he needs the votes of moderate Republicans and independents, i.e., reasonable people.  Sure, he needs to keep the lunatics riled up, but the more he does, the more votes he loses from people with a brain.  You don’t get the votes of reasonable people by saying more crazy shit.  Plato said that.  I made that up, but knowing what I know about Plato, which isn’t much, he could have said that, so it’s true.

Trump escalator

But here’s the deal.  Trump doesn’t want to win this election, and never has.  Since he first rode down that escalator and said Mexicans are rapists, Trump’s entire campaign has only been about getting attention, and maybe getting a more money for his TV show.  See here.  That’s all this farce was ever about.  And, yes, he has succeeded beyond his wildest expectations in getting attention, but now he is about lose, and lose big, and he has ruined his business and brand in the process.  So now he needs an exit strategy to save face, and something to do after he gets his ass kicked by Hillary.  More on that later, but here is why Trump will definitely lose, and I will take any amount you want to bet on that, and give you ridiculous odds to make it interesting. 

Trump has exactly one way to win–the Rust Belt.  Under the Trump theory, the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin have enough white people who have seen their jobs shipped to Mexico and China, and want to Make America Great Again, that they will vote for Trump.  His only path to victory.  All the racists in the South and the anarchists out West are also voting for him, of course, but their state is already Red.  

So here’s the map from 2012, when President Obama beat Romney 332-206.  Let’s assume that Trump wins all the Red states that Romney won, which is far from a foregone conclusion, with Clinton close in Red states like North Carolina, Missouri and Arizona.  But whatever, hang with me for a minute.

Trump 2012 Map

Assuming Trump can win all the Red states that Romney won in 2012, Trump has to also win the Rust Belt, or without the entire Rust Belt, at least Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  If he turns the key states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania Blue, he wins.  If he loses Florida, he could win with Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, as shown below, and still get to 270 electoral votes.   

Trump Penn plus mi and wi

Without Pennsylvania, Trump would have to win Florida and Ohio, plus Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump no PA

So clearly, even if Ohio and and Florida are a possibility, Trump needs, at a minimum, some combination of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.  

And now for the fun part.  Trump is getting crushed in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.  

2016-08-24 Polls

Clinton is up by 9.2 in Pennsylvania, 7.3 in Michigan and 9.4 in Wisconsin.  That is not close in terms of polls, and that won’t turn around.  The Keystone State is really the keystone in all of this.  Even if Trump gets Ohio and Florida, he still needs Pennsylvania, or some ridiculous combination of other states that he would never get if he fails to get Pennsylvania.  

In polls of the Philly suburbs, which typically decide the state, Clinton is up BY 40 POINTS.  The Philly suburbs decide the state because the rural areas of Pennsylvania go Republican and Pittsburgh and Philly go Democrat.  The college educated Philly suburbs decide it, and they are all Hillary–BY 40 POINTS.  

Everyone knows Trump.  People won’t learn more about him that makes them like Trump better, especially if they “Let Trump Be Trump.”  In fact, every time he opens his mouth, he invites the possibility of yet another disaster.  Trump won’t sway anyone to vote for him who isn’t already going to vote for him.

So that’s why Trump will lose.  Trump knows that, and is preparing for it, in several ways.  More on that later.  But Trump is done.  Stick a fork in him.

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