10 Factors Decide Presidential Elections and Polls Ain’t One of Them

05-23 Latest Polls

So Seadick texted the above graph on The String this morning, with the caption “Pipes, holy fook.”  I’m not worried.  Not in the slightest.

I know the media and the pundits are going nuts about the fact that Trump is closing on Hillary in the national polls, and even ahead in the Fox News polls.  Everyone is saying “WTF, maybe Trump could win this thing!”   

Fox News Poll

Here’s the thing though.  National polls are 100% bullshit, and Fox News national polls are a billion percent bullshit.  They don’t mean anything. They especially don’t mean anything right now, with Trump having just clinched the Republican nomination, and that socialist Bernie Sanders still hanging around and stirring up trouble for Hillary even though he has had already lost.  But even after Hillary is the official nominee, national polls still won’t matter, and won’t predict who will win the election.

Do you want to know what does matter?  Well, if you study past presidential elections, and I have, there are 10 factors that decide the presidential election.  Here is the definitive list of the 10 factors that will decide this election, in no particular order:

  1.  The Electoral Map
  2.  Women
  3.  Who You Would Rather Have a Beer With
  4.  The Ground Game
  5.  Stupid Statements by the Candidates
  6.  Hispanics
  7.  The Prior President
  8.  Money
  9.  The Economy
  10.  Cataclysmic Events

That’s the list, and national polls ain’t on the list.  Sure, polls in particular states might give you an idea of how the electoral map will turn out, and polls of Hispanics and Women will certainly be of interest for those factors.  But national polls are meaningless.

I’m going to blog each of these factors when I get around to it, but by my count I see at least 7 of those factors, maybe 9, breaking in favor of Hillary.  Trump doesn’t stand a chance, and it won’t even be close.  That’s not wishful thinking, that’s just a fact.

More to come on each of the factors on the list, so stay tuned.

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