Twitter Guessers Aren’t Real


If you want to be internet famous, and who doesn’t, all you gotta do is Twitter predict some wildly improbably event with uncanny specificity, and then have that wildly improbable event actually happen, specifically as you uncannily predicted.  If you can do that, you will go viral on the Internets, the secret dream of everyone these days. 

The latest Nostradamus is @FanuteGod who tweeted back in April that the Giants would go 11-5 and only lose to the Eagles, Redskins, Steelers, Vikings and Packers.  Assuming the Giants beat the Redskins next weekend, this prediction will be dead on balls accurate.  The odds of predicting the Giants’ EXACT win-loss record, and who they would lose to this season, are somewhere between the odds of IJ not drinking a beer today and Gramps ever voting for a Democrat, and by that I mean damn near impossible.

But here’s the thing.  If you do the math, and I haven’t in this case because it is hard, at least a billion people on this sphere don’t have an unpublished thought these days.  From the blogs, Facebook posts, tweets, text strings with a bunch of gambling, drunken degenerate idiots, etc., etc., etc., anyone and everyone is broadcasting absolutely anything that occurs to them every moment, be it profound, ridiculous or otherwise.  So, statistically speaking nowadays, absolutely anything that happens, however improbable, has probably been predicted in one form or another by some idiot, and memorialized on one of the social medias.  That’s just math, and you cannot deny math, unless you are a Republican, of course.  

So I’m out here saying that yea, @FanuteGod absolutely nailed it, and good on him, but statistically speaking, not that big of a deal.  I mean, the odds of someone winning the lottery are astronomical.  But someone has to win it.  There are probably thousands of tweets out there predicting the Giants would go 5-11, or 16-0, or 0-16.  And in that parallel universe where the Giants are 0-15 and Angry blogs, some other guy is internet famous for predicting the Giants record.

As IJ noted:  “If an infinite number of monkeys type on an infinite number of typewriters, one of them will produce Hamlet verbatim.” – The Infinite Monkey Theorem

Now, having said all that, I have to note this tweet from 2014 that actually came true, and is so ridiculously improbable it actually disproves The Infinite Monkey Theorem.  Check out this tweet FROM 2014:


Ok, sure, the Cubs and Indians in the World Series, predicted two years in advance, was a long shot.  But what had just happened on November 3, 2014?  That’s right, Joe Maddon coming to the Cubs was announced the day before the tweet.  See here.  Of course Joe would be taking the Cubs to the World Series in two years.  But playing the Indians?  The Indians had just acquired some great pitching, so not that much of a stretch there either, really.  And a seven game series going into extra innings in the seventh game?  Again, that happens, so still not impressed.  

But here is what gives me the chills.  @RaysFanGio also predicted the end of the world, and an apocalypse.  Donald Trump was elected president the next week.  Nostradamus predicted “Hister,” and @RaysFanGio predicted Trump.  Gotta respect that, and stockpile the beer, gasoline and ammo.

h/t IJ

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